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Summary:
After a period of bearish trends, the global sugar market could witness a price recovery in the next season. Factors such as potential weather disruptions in Brazil, India’s export policies, and changing ethanol economics are setting the stage for possible upward momentum in sugar prices by 2026-27.
SUGAR PRICES Face a Possible Rebound Next Season
The global sugar market has been under bearish pressure through the current season (October 2025–September 2026), with prices hovering near a five-year low at around 14.3 US cents per pound. However, analysts suggest that this downward trend could reverse next season as uncertainties loom over Brazil’s sugar output and its crushing prospects in the Center-South province.
At present, sugar prices remain lower than India’s domestic rates, making the local market more attractive for Indian sugar mills. To make exports viable, mills would need either government incentives or a rise in global prices. Moreover, India’s decision to allow 1.5 million tonnes (mt) of sugar exports this season could add further pressure to international prices.
GLOBAL SUGAR MARKET Trends Show Oversupply
The global market continues to face surplus conditions, with major producers like India, Brazil, and Thailand reporting good harvests. Czarnikow, a leading global sugar broker, projects a sugar surplus of 8.7 million tonnes, with production estimated at 186.5 million tonnes and consumption at 177.8 million tonnes.
India alone could produce around 32.8 million tonnes, thanks to lower diversion of sucrose toward ethanol production. The shift stems from the Indian government’s ethanol pricing policy, which currently offers higher returns for ethanol derived from grains rather than sugarcane. However, the recent removal of the 50% duty on molasses exports could encourage higher sugar-related production activity.
BRAZIL SUGAR OUTPUT May Decline Next Year
A potential turning point for sugar prices lies in Brazil’s weather conditions. The 2026–27 season could see a dip in production if dry weather in the Center-South region affects sugarcane crushing, according to StoneX, a US-based financial firm.
Czarnikow had initially forecast next season’s global sugar output at 187 million tonnes, but the current low prices may push Brazilian producers to divert more cane toward ethanol production, leading to reduced sugar availability.
ETHANOL PRODUCTION and Weather Factors Could Reshape Supply
The La Niña weather phenomenon, expected between December and February, could influence rainfall patterns across South America and Asia. Reduced rainfall in Brazil might lower sugarcane yields, while excessive rain in Asia could affect ratoon planting in India and Thailand. These climatic variations, combined with ethanol economics, will play a crucial role in determining next season’s global sugar supply.
Conclusion
While the sugar market continues to face surplus and low prices in the short term, signs of tightening supply and weather uncertainties in major producing countries point to a possible price rebound in 2026–27. With Brazil’s output at risk and India recalibrating its ethanol and export policies, the next sugar season could mark a turning point for global sugar prices.