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Summary:
Russian wheat prices have fallen to their lowest levels since August 2024, tightening bearish pressure across global markets. Despite fresh demand from Egypt and strong export potential, logistical challenges and oversupply are pushing prices down further.
1. Russian Wheat: Setting the Global Trend
Russian Wheat continues to dictate global price movements as the world’s largest exporter. Prices for wheat from the former Soviet Union region have slumped to their lowest point since August 2024. Despite this, the Chicago Board of Trade has seen prices rise to nearly $5.40 per bushel, largely on renewed buying interest from Egypt.
2. Wheat Prices: Sharp Regional Differences
Wheat Prices across Russia show notable regional variations. The average rate for 12.5% protein wheat in Europe has dropped to $169.25 per tonne, driven by abundant supplies from fresh harvests outside the southern region.
In the Volga area, prices have declined to $138 per tonne, while in the Central district, rates stand at $147.50. Both regions are expecting significant production increases this year — over 20 million tonnes in Volga and 21 million tonnes in the Central district, compared with 17.7 and 16.8 million tonnes last year respectively.
3. Export Demand: Egypt Leads the Way
Export Demand for Russian wheat remains strong, particularly from Egypt, which continues to be one of the largest buyers. Russia is projected to export more than 4.5 million tonnes of wheat in November — up from 4.1 million tonnes a year ago. Egypt alone has purchased 0.5 million tonnes, with additional orders being negotiated by Bulgaria and Ukraine.
The US Department of Agriculture forecasts that Egypt’s wheat imports could hit a record 13 million tonnes this year.
4. Supply Challenges: Infrastructure and Logistics
Supply Challenges are intensifying the downward price pressure. Regions distant from export ports face logistical hurdles as river transport halts for the winter. These infrastructure limitations make it difficult to move wheat efficiently from production zones, potentially worsening the glut and lowering prices even more.
5. Global Outlook: Production and Trade Balances
Global Outlook remains cautiously optimistic despite Russia’s local struggles. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), global wheat production is expected to reach 800–810 million tonnes — about 1% higher than last year. Global trade volumes are estimated at 200 million tonnes, with closing stocks projected to rise to 321 million tonnes.
Conclusion
While Russian wheat prices continue to fall under the weight of oversupply and logistical constraints, global demand led by Egypt provides some relief. The overall wheat market remains bearish in the short term, but improved export flows and stronger trade demand could stabilize prices in the months ahead.