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Summary:
India's first kharif crop estimate reveals black matpe (urad) production has hit a 10-year low at 1.21 million tonnes, down from 1.60 million tonnes in the previous season. This development has triggered immediate price responses in key export markets like Myanmar, while domestic prices remain steady due to existing imports and subdued demand.
Market Impact and Price Movements
Production Challenges
The significant drop in production can be attributed to two key factors:
- Quality issues due to untimely rains during harvest in Karnataka and Maharashtra
- Sharp decrease in cultivation area in Madhya Pradesh
International Price Response
Myanmar's export market has shown immediate reaction to India's production estimates:
- Fair Average Quality: Increased to $1,040 per tonne
- Special Quality: Rose to $1,140 per tonne
- Both grades saw a $25 per tonne increase in October-November delivery prices
Domestic Price Dynamics
Despite lower production estimates, Indian domestic prices have remained relatively stable:
- National average: ₹8,213 per quintal (slight decrease from ₹8,283 in October)
- Karnataka: ₹8,331 per quintal (significant increase from ₹6,607)
- Uttar Pradesh: ₹7,966 per quintal
- Maharashtra: ₹7,211 per quintal
Current Market Balance
The market is experiencing an interesting dynamic:
- Downward pressure from:
- Higher current arrivals
- Quality concerns in key growing regions
- Supportive factors:
- Historic low production
- Rising export market prices
- Minimum Support Price (MSP) at ₹7,400
Conclusion
The black matpe market is poised for potential upward movement in the coming weeks. While current prices remain stable due to immediate supply availability and moderate demand, the significantly lower kharif production estimates and rising export market prices suggest a firming trend ahead. Traders and processors should closely monitor arrival patterns and quality parameters, as these factors will likely influence price movements in the short to medium term.