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Summary:
The global pulses market is heading into a potentially challenging period in 2024-25, with major producers like Canada and Australia reporting substantial harvests. This comprehensive analysis examines how increased production volumes across key regions might impact prices and trade dynamics, with particular focus on yellow peas, lentils, and desi chickpeas markets.
Supply Surge from Major Producers
The 2024-25 season is shaping up to be marked by abundant supply, particularly from North American and Australian markets. Statistics Canada's latest estimates reveal a significant 15% increase in pea production, reaching 3.01 million tonnes. This surge includes:
- A 10% increase in yellow peas production compared to 2023-24
- A substantial 40% rise in green peas production
Yellow Peas Market Dynamics
The yellow peas segment presents an interesting case study in current market conditions. Key pricing points indicate intense competition:
- Canadian offers to India: $450/tonne CNF
- Russian offers to India: $405/tonne (up $5 from previous week)
- Canadian FOB pricing: $390/tonne
- Russian FOB pricing: $380/tonne
This pricing pressure is having a ripple effect across the broader pulses market, contributing to declining prices across various pulse varieties.
Lentils Market Update
The lentils market is showing significant shifts in production patterns:
- Canada's production: 2.77 million tonnes
- Australia's production: 1.1 million tonnes (29% decrease)
- Canadian red lentils: Expected 1.55 million tonnes
- Canadian green lentils: Approaching 1 million tonnes
Current market prices reflect these dynamics:
- Russian green lentils to India: $1,100/tonne (down $15)
- Russian green lentils to Turkey: $1,070/tonne (down $10)
- Canadian prices holding steady at $1,120 to India and $1,080 to Turkey
Desi Chickpeas: Increasing Competition
The desi chickpeas market is facing particularly interesting dynamics:
- Canadian production: Doubled to 330,000 tonnes
- Australian production: 1.9 million tonnes (second-highest on record)
- US production: 360,000 tonnes
Recent price movements show market adjustments:
- Australian prices: Increased by $10-30/tonne
- Russian exports to Pakistan: Decreased to $775/tonne (down $5)
- Australian January-February offers to India: Up $30 to $710/tonne
Looking Ahead: Market Implications
The current supply scenario presents both challenges and opportunities for market participants. Key factors to watch include:
- India's duty-free import policy for yellow peas (current end date: December 31, 2024)
- Weather conditions in key producing regions, particularly Russia
- India's rabi sowing progress and potential yield outcomes
Conclusion
The 2024-25 season presents a complex trading environment characterized by abundant supply across most pulse varieties. Traders and processors will need to carefully navigate price pressures and changing market dynamics. Success will likely depend on strategic positioning and the ability to capitalize on regional price differentials. Market participants should closely monitor policy developments, particularly in major importing countries like India, as these could significantly impact trading opportunities in the coming months