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Summary
The global chickpea market is heading into bearish territory for the 2024-25 season, primarily driven by Australia's near-record production estimates and increased planting area. With production set to rise by 2% globally and Australia's exports already showing significant year-over-year growth, market participants should prepare for potential price pressures in the coming months.
Global Production Forecast
According to the International Grains Commission (IGC), global chickpea production is expected to reach 17.1 million tonnes (mt) in the 2024-25 season (August-July), marking a 2% increase from the previous season's 16.7 mt. This growth is primarily attributed to exceptional harvest predictions from key producing regions.
Australian Boom
Australia emerges as the key player in this year's market dynamics, with projections pointing to a production of 1.9 million tonnes – their second-highest on record. The Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARES) reports that farmers have significantly expanded their chickpea cultivation area to 769,000 hectares, an impressive 88% increase from 2023.
While official estimates place Australian production at 1.3 mt, industry experts suggest higher figures ranging from 1.5-1.7 mt, with some optimistic projections reaching 1.9 mt. Historical data indicates that Australia typically exports around 108% of its estimated production over the past five years, suggesting substantial export volumes ahead.
Global Trade Dynamics
Early trade indicators are already showing significant movement:
- Australia has exported over 500,000 tonnes of desi chickpeas in October-November 2024 alone
- This represents a five-fold increase compared to the same period in 2023
- Canadian exports have seen a slight decline, dropping to 53,183 tonnes from 66,478 tonnes between August and November 2024
Supply and Demand Balance
The IGC's latest assessment provides key metrics for market participants:
- Opening stocks for 2024-25: 3.2 mt (lower than previous year)
- Total expected supply: 20.3 mt
- Projected consumption: 17.2 mt (unchanged from previous year)
- Forecast exports: 2.4 mt
- Expected closing stocks: 3.1 mt
Price Implications
The market is already responding to these supply dynamics:
- Australian desi chickpeas for February-March delivery to India are trading at $675/tonne
- Russian offers to Pakistan for February delivery are at $740/tonne, with recent $20/tonne price reductions
- Other market participants are finding it challenging to compete at these price levels
Indian Production Outlook
India, a crucial player in the global chickpea market, is showing positive signs:
- Slightly increased acreage at 9.67 million hectares (versus 9.59 million hectares last year)
- Production expectations are more optimistic than initial forecasts
- Late but successful sowing season
Conclusion
The 2024-25 chickpea market presents both challenges and opportunities for market participants. The combination of Australia's bumper crop, increased global production, and competitive pricing from major exporters like Russia suggests continued downward pressure on prices. Traders and importers should carefully monitor Australian export patterns and Russian pricing strategies, as these will likely set the tone for market dynamics in the coming months. While lower closing stocks might provide some price support, the overall market sentiment remains bearish, necessitating careful risk management and strategic planning from market participants.