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Summary
The global cashew market faces a complex landscape in 2025 with tightening regulations across key African producing nations, potential price increases, and shifting supply chain dynamics. While production appears strong in several regions, new regulatory frameworks in Tanzania, Ghana, and Côte d'Ivoire are creating additional costs and logistical challenges for traders and processors. This analysis examines the key factors shaping the market and their potential impact on global cashew trade.
Market Overview
The global cashew market is poised for a challenging year in 2025, characterized by an early harvest season in Côte d'Ivoire and promising crop yields across several African nations. However, the implementation of stricter regulations in key producing countries is creating significant ripple effects throughout the supply chain.
Regulatory Developments
Tanzania has introduced mandatory trading through the Tanzanian Mercantile Exchange (TMX), imposing a 3% fee on transactions. This new requirement has led to higher acquisition costs for buyers and extended shipment delays by approximately one month. Industry participants report that while the TMX benefits from the fee structure, other stakeholders—including farmers—are experiencing negative impacts.
Ghana has intensified its price control measures and enforcement against unauthorized cross-border movement of cashews. Meanwhile, Côte d'Ivoire, a dominant player in global cashew production, has elevated the official farmgate prices to 425 CFA francs, further increasing costs for processors and importers while intensifying market competition.
Raw cashew export prices are trending upward across multiple African nations, including Burkina Faso, Guinea-Bissau, Indonesia, Mozambique, Senegal, and Tanzania. These price movements have raised industry-wide concerns about long-term market sustainability.
In a significant policy shift, Benin will join other African nations like Côte d'Ivoire in prioritizing domestic processing by prohibiting raw cashew nut exports starting April 2025. This reflects a broader continental movement toward local value addition and industrialization.
Price Outlook and Market Dynamics
Market analysts project a bullish trend for cashew prices in 2025. With raw cashew prices increasing at origin, kernel prices could potentially exceed $4.50 per pound. However, ultimate market conditions will depend on global demand patterns, processing capacities, and how effectively processors navigate supply chain challenges.
The Southeast Asian market presents a contrasting picture, with Vietnam and Cambodia reporting harvest delays and growth challenges, though prices remain relatively stable for March shipments.
Order flows from Western markets continue, albeit at reduced volumes, forcing processors to carefully reconsider their pricing strategies. In the United States and Europe, buyers are placing smaller orders, compelling packers to adjust pricing to maintain competitive positioning.
Regional Market Conditions
India
The Indian market is experiencing decreasing export prices and volumes, primarily attributed to the depreciation of the rupee against the dollar. However, robust domestic demand is providing price support. Erratic rainfall and unusual weather patterns in key producing states like Kerala, Karnataka, and Maharashtra have impacted cashew yields, resulting in tighter supplies and upward price pressure. The industry's increasing focus on value-added products is contributing positively to the domestic sector.
Middle East
Middle Eastern markets show selective activity, particularly in advance of Ramadan, though demand remains strongest for lower-priced products.
Outlook
While the cashew market is expected to grow in 2025, Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana will play decisive roles in determining price trajectories. The evolving regulatory landscape, combined with production variables and shifting demand patterns, creates a complex environment requiring careful navigation by all market participants.
Conclusion
The 2025 cashew market presents both challenges and opportunities for industry stakeholders. As African nations implement stricter regulations aimed at capturing more value locally, the global supply chain must adapt to new realities including potential price increases and logistical hurdles. Forward-thinking traders and processors will need to develop flexible strategies to manage these evolving market conditions while maintaining competitive positioning.